United Nations Development Programme Guatemala & Instituto Centroamericano para los Estudios de la Democracia Social
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During the Summer 2026 internship at Instituto DEMOS in partnership with UNDP Guatemala, I developed the 2026 first edition of Guatemala's democratic conflict risk map. It is a geospatial early warning tool built to support the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (Supreme Court of Elections) ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The project involved integrating data from over ten institutional sources, including IFES/TSE electoral conflict maps (2007–2023), MP and PNC crime statistics, INE census data, and open-source data on organized crime presence. I built a composite index of five weighted components (electoral conflict, social conflict, at-risk populations, organized crime, and violence) where each component included variables about its category, covering all 340 municipalities in Guatemala.
The final deliverable was an interactive ArcGIS Online map and a report classifying municipalities into four risk levels (Low, Moderate, High, Critical) to guide institutional resource allocation and prevention strategies before the 2027 election cycle.
Given the sensitivity of the data, which includes assessments of organized crime presence, electoral violence history, and municipal risk classifications, the project operates under strict confidentiality protocols. This confidentiality is essential because the unauthorized disclosure of risk classifications could compromise security planning, influence the electoral process, or expose communities and institutions to unintended consequences ahead of the election.